The key to the severity of impacts in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico from strengthening Erin depends on how soon a turn to the northwest occurs with a near-miss versus a direct hit.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned that Tropical Storm Erin is expected to strengthen and could become a major hurricane over the weekend as it shifts just north of the northern Leeward Islands,

Tropical Storm Erin is tracking quickly westward through the open Atlantic waters and should become increasingly organized in the coming days, potentially reaching major hurricane intensity this weekend as it tracks just north of the Caribbean islands, where it could bring rain and gusty winds.